易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进表示 恋恋超姻速

The property market volume and price changes in the mentality of buyers or make up the golden nine silvers ten variables exist inevitably differentiation property "golden nine silver ten" variables exist – reporter Peng Yang in the lack of investment channels in the background, a lot of money into the real estate market, hot city price and volume Qi Zhang phenomenon. The personage inside course of study thinks, the change of mentality of house buyer or one of the reasons that the volume of some cities rebound rapidly in the near future. But whether the "golden nine silver ten" can continue the fiery situation remains to be seen. At present, we need to constantly implement classification control ideas, we can consider setting up early warning mechanism to dynamically monitor the potential risks of the market. Money flows to the property market, "the current stock of money is large, M2 growth rate is 2 times the growth rate of GDP."." Ming Yuan Real Estate Research Institute Vice President Liu Ce said, from the structure, because the real estate industry trend is better, so the property market has become the most effective way to absorb funds. The demand for residential mortgage loans has also boosted the real estate market. Huatai Securities chief macro researcher Li Chao said that this year’s new RMB loans mainly rely on real estate and infrastructure demand pull, residents mortgage loans have maintained upward trend in the first half of the year. It is estimated that the medium and long term loans of residents will not decrease in August, and maintain a high level of 470 billion yuan is a high probability event. With the weakening of the base effect, M2 will usher in a small bottoming rebound. In July, M2 is close to the lowest point of the year, and the possibility of M2 growth over 11% in August is higher. Chinese pointed out that in 2016 two quarter monetary policy implementation report, an increase of 2 trillion and 300 billion yuan in the first half of individual housing loans, an increase of 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan at the end of 6, the growth rate reached 32.2%, the monthly increment of record highs, mainly because of commercial housing sales growth faster, driven by the rapid growth of personal housing loan. In the first half of this year, the total sales of commercial housing increased by 42.1%, and the growth rate increased by 32.1 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. From the point of view of the agencies, the loans of small and medium sized Chinese banks increased more than the same year. From the release of the bank semi annual report, the Construction Bank in the first half of the individual housing loans increased, individual housing loans 31 billion 817 million 700 thousand yuan, non-performing loans rate was 0.34%. Individual housing loans balance, new scale ranks first in the same industry. CCB chairman Wang Hongzhang recently in the semi annual results briefing said that the second half of the first bank mortgage loan trend will continue, in addition to pushing housing mortgage loans, but also to promote the housing provident fund loans. "Asset shortage" has become one of the reasons for the current hot property market. Liu Ce said that the interest rate of deposits and treasury bonds is low, and even unable to win inflation; real estate prices are steadily rising, becoming one of the important means of wealth increase of residents. As a result, there is no better place for residents to deposit or even to fund large institutions. Buyers mentality subtle, E-House Institute data show that in August the market turnover compared to July has risen, reflecting the enthusiasm of buyers to enter the market is improving. Yan Yuejin, director of think tank research center of E-House Research Institute, said, for property buyers, in addition to worry about rising housing prices, but also worried about tightening policies such as credit, accelerate the pace of purchase is to lock the purchase costs, avoid political comments

楼市量价齐涨 购房者心态转变或令金九银十存变数   分化难免 楼市“金九银十”存变数   □本报记者 彭扬   在投资渠道匮乏的背景下,大量资金流入房地产市场,热点城市出现价格与成交量齐涨的现象。业内人士认为,购房者心态的转变或是近期部分城市成交量迅速反弹的原因之一。但“金九银十”能否延续火热的局面仍有待观察。当前,需不断落实分类调控思路,可考虑设置预警机制动态监测市场潜在风险。   资金涌向楼市   “目前货币存量较大,M2增速是GDP增速的2倍。”明源地产研究院副院长刘策表示,从结构上讲,由于房地产行业走势较好,因此楼市成了吸纳资金最有效的渠道。   居民住房按揭贷款的需求旺盛,也助推了房地产市场走高。华泰证券首席宏观研究员李超表示,今年人民币新增贷款主要靠房地产和基建需求拉动,居民按揭贷款上半年一直保持震荡上行的态势。预计8月份居民中长期贷款仍然不会降低,维持在4700亿元的高位是大概率事件。随着基数效应逐渐弱化,M2将迎来小幅触底反弹。7月份M2接近全年的最低点,8月M2同比增速超过11%的可能性较高。   2016年二季度中国货币政策执行报告中指出,上半年个人住房贷款增加2.3万亿元,同比多增1.2万亿元,6月末增速达32.2%,月度增量屡创新高,主要是因为上半年商品房销售增速较快,带动个人住房贷款较快增长。上半年,全国商品房销售额累计同比增长42.1%,增速较上年同期大幅提高了32.1个百分点。分机构看,中资中小型银行贷款同比多增较多。   从已发布的银行半年报看,建设银行上半年加大了个人住房贷款投放力度,个人住房贷款318.177亿元,不良贷款率为0.34%。个人住房贷款余额、新增规模均居同业首位。建行董事长王洪章日前在半年报业绩说明会上表示,下半年建行按揭贷全国第一的趋势会持续,除力推住房按揭贷以外,还要推进住房公积金贷款。   “资产荒”也成了当下楼市火热的原因之一。刘策表示,存款和国债利率低,甚至无法跑赢通胀;房地产价格则在稳步上涨,成为居民财富增值的重要手段之一。因此,居民存款甚至大机构的资金都没有更好的去处。   购房者心态微妙   易居研究院的数据显示,8月市场成交相比7月有所上升,反映购房者入市积极性在提高。易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进表示,对购房者而言,除了担心房价上涨以外,也担心信贷等政策收紧,加快购房节奏是锁定购房成本、规避政策调整风险的最佳策略。   最近打算购房的小冯对记者表示,好多楼盘还没等考虑好,就已经售罄了。小冯来北京已快四年,一直未将买房列入自己的计划。眼见近几个月北京一些楼盘的价格持续上涨,心里才感到着急。“看周围的人都在买房,自己不买,感觉踏不上这趟车了。大家都说京沪楼市一直在涨,现在想想以前自己可能顾虑太多,买了应该不会亏。”   此前中国证券报记者在通州采访时也遇到过一些购房者感慨应该早买房。“一年前房价3万多时没有入手,现在眼睁睁看着涨到了5万,越涨越高,对自己而言压力越来越大。但现在不买又担心将来限购更严,想买都买不成了。”一位购房者表示。   无独有偶,在深圳工作的小杜,近来也开始筹钱准备在东莞市松山湖附近购置一套房产。小杜坦言:“我目前的工资确实无法负担深圳的房价。很多外地人都在深圳买房,甚至还有香港人来投资。现在只能先买周边城市的房子作为投资,等将来房价涨了再置换深圳的房子。”小杜的同事甚至还打算投资武汉、西安等二线城市的楼市。   易居研究院的报告显示,今年5月至7月份市场交易呈现逐月下降态势,但8月开始出现反弹。另外,相比2010年至2015年同期,今年8月份市场成交是近年最好的水平。   “由于近期部分二线城市存在政策调整的可能,因此购房者在入市方面依然不敢懈怠。”严跃进认为,从资金上看,虽然挤压资产泡沫是商业银行需配合的内容,但不排除“金九银十”阶段商业银行部分信贷部门会放水,用以抢占优质房贷客户。   从价格方面看,随着楼市进入“金九银十”的传统旺季,市场供需两端将持续上行。以北京为例,9月3日在通州、房山和大兴开盘的三个项目,去化率均达到了100%。   但上海中原地产市场分析师卢文曦表示,此前销售是以透支后续购买力为代价的,尤其是上海,淡季不淡,因此“金九成色”不足的可能性较大。中原地产研究报告指出,9月逐步进入传统的成交旺季,也是近几年政策发布的窗口期,鉴于当前市场的不确定性,近期部分房企纷纷加快了项目入市节奏。近六周中原地产监测的19个城市推售总套数均超过1万套,8月最后一周达到1.5万套。但推盘认购率有所波动,后市或面临前期成交透支所带来的销售压力。   加强预期管理   随着一线城市和热点二线城市调控政策出台预期强烈,更多地区的楼市也可能传递出资源稀缺的信号。东兴证券分析师郑闵钢表示,这或令政策意图打折扣,不能达到平抑地价和房价的目的。当前市场与政策博弈的力度正在不断加强。   中国指数研究院报告表示,展望未来,在热点城市楼市持续高烧的情况下,房地产调控力度将进一步加大。同时,随着市场传导效应不断显现,未来或有更多城市加入政策收紧行列。   在此背景下,部分购房者可能加快购房,以规避后续政策收紧风险。换言之,在政策没有真正落地时,各类恐慌性购房的做法难以避免,反而会使部分城市成交量上升。   刘策表示,有些城市甚至越是出台相关调控政策,房价越是上涨,打乱了市场的自身节奏。   业内人士认为,房价调控和房价上涨是两个现象。如果没有调控,有可能房价涨幅会更大。一些大城市房价上涨压力比较大,调控效应可能会被削弱;有些城市经过调控后,会有所降温和规范。在一定程度上来说,调控仍然是有效果的。   住建部在贯彻《法治政府建设实施纲要(2015-2020年)》实施方案中表示,将完善房地产宏观调控。根据房地产市场分化的实际,坚持分类调控,因城施策。坚持加强政府调控和发挥市场作用相促进,使房地产业与经济社会发展和群众居住需求相适应。   “相关部门不应出台助涨房价的措施,否则会加大投机性需求。”刘策认为。   严跃进表示,后续相关部门可考虑建立一个预警机制,预测接下来房价的上涨趋势,对此有所准备。目前,多数地区是房价上涨过快过猛后才出手调控,仍然比较滞后。应动态监测市场潜在风险,至少提前四个月至六个月来进行预判管控。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: