Today a turmoil-sexhu

Today, A shares will be turbulent the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Jiang Rushan in the next round of the global financial crisis has been "elegant" atmosphere of terror, when the outbreak, although there is still a lot of uncertainty, but the outbreak is inevitable. If a new round of the global financial crisis erupts, it will also explode from the US capital market, but the worst hit is the world’s major economies. Today, A shares will suddenly turmoil, the U.S. stock market sharply diving, Wall Street is full of terror: New York time on Friday, U.S. stocks almost all stocks suffered panic selling, Dow, NASDAQ and S & P index fell more than 2%, at the same time, the international crude oil prices fell more than 3%. The day before the Chinese stock market, near the end, there have been "strange" sharp dive signs, presumably Monday, A shares will be violent concussion. To be sure, the next round of the global financial crisis terrorist atmosphere has been "elegant" out, when the full outbreak, although there is still a lot of uncertainty, but the outbreak is inevitable. If a new round of the global financial crisis erupts, it will also explode from the US capital market, but the worst hit is the world’s major economies. How to understand the crisis characteristics and evolution trend? First of all, I share in a speech in Boston 2 years ago: "today, I would like to emphasize is that the global financial crisis of 08 seemingly away from us, but the financial crisis that toxin is not released, but wrapped up by the QE policies. Why the U.S. stock market after the shock of the financial crisis, began to rebound from the beginning of 2009, singing all the way, in fact, is not the Obama government boasted, is the result of the industrial economy to better pull, but the direct result driven by the currency bubble. Successive rounds of QE monetary policy fueled the US stock market. From the curve, but Obama and the Fed showing signal will be the end of quantitative easing monetary policy, U.S. stocks will immediately face, which means that the U.S. stock market rose already cannot do without the support of quantitative easing monetary policy, or the continued expansion of the monetary bubble is to promote the U.S. stock market continued to rise in opium. This is the American stock market weakness." "Today came to Boston’s financial elite, I want a special view is described: now Obama and Yellen are sandwiched between the monetary bubble and the fiscal cliff, trying to end quantitative easing monetary policy, debt reduction through the" detoxification "strategy, but this is a dangerous step, if too much force, maximum risk the stock market is likely to result in piercing the currency bubble, triggering capital market crisis. So the key to testing the wisdom of Obama and the Federal Reserve is how to reduce fiscal deficits strategically and prevent bubbles from breaking. It can be said that in Obama’s term, he was destined to perform "duet with man" on the issue of interest rates. Second, what is the biggest harm to the United States when the financial crisis erupts again? It can be seen that the American elite has been such a knot)

今天A股会出现剧烈震荡   文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 江濡山   下一轮全球金融危机的恐怖气息已经“飘逸”出来,何时全面爆发,虽然仍有很大的不确定性,但是爆发是不可避免的。如果新一轮全球金融危机爆发,同样会从美国资本市场引爆,但受伤害最厉害的却是全球各主要经济体。 今天A股会出现剧烈震荡   突然之间,美国股市急剧跳水,华尔街充满恐怖气氛:纽约时间上周五,美股几乎所有股票遭遇恐慌性抛售,道琼斯指数、纳斯达克指数、标准普尔指数的跌幅均超过2%,与此同时,国际原油价格大跌超过3%。而前一天的中国股市,临近尾声,也出现了“诡异”的急剧跳水迹象,想必本周一,A股会出现剧烈震荡。   可以肯定地说,下一轮全球金融危机的恐怖气息已经“飘逸”出来,何时全面爆发,虽然仍有很大的不确定性,但是爆发是不可避免的。如果新一轮全球金融危机爆发,同样会从美国资本市场引爆,但受伤害最厉害的却是全球各主要经济体。   到底如何认识这一危情特征及演化趋势呢?   首先,分享一下我2年前我在波士顿的一个演讲片段:   “今天,我要特别强调的是,08全球金融危机看似离我们而去,但是产生那场金融危机的毒素并没有得以释放,只是通过QE策略包裹起来了。为什么受到金融危机冲击后的美国股市,从2009年初开始止跌反弹,一路高歌,其实并非奥巴马政府吹嘘的那样,是产业经济向好拉动的结果,而是靠货币泡沫直接推动的结果。连续几轮QE货币政策的为美股推波助澜。从道琼斯曲线来看,但凡奥巴马及美联储流露出将要结束量化宽松货币政策的信号后,美股即刻就会变脸,这说明:美国股市的上涨已经离不开量化宽松货币政策的支撑,或者说持续膨胀的货币泡沫是推动美国股市持续走高的鸦片,这正是美国股市的软肋。”   “今天来到波士顿的财经精英人士不少,我要特别阐述的一个看法是:现在奥巴马和耶伦被夹在货币泡沫和财政悬崖之间,试图结束量化宽松货币政策,通过“戒毒”策略减少债务,但这是一步险棋,若用力太猛,可能导致的最大风险是刺破股市货币泡沫,进而引发资本市场的危机。因此,如何才能做到既策略地减少财政赤字,又能防止货币泡沫破裂,这才是考验奥巴马及美联储智慧的关键。可以说,在奥巴马任期内,他注定会跟耶仑在利率问题上演‘二人转’。   其次,再次爆发金融危机,对美国最大的伤害是什么?可以看出,美国精英的一直有这样一个心结:如何策略化解巨额的财政赤字,又不刺破股市泡沫。如果美联储结束量化宽松货币政策,则意味着结束了给股市输送货币泡沫机制;但若没有配套的“护卫”措施,美国股市可能会进入一个较长时期、较大深度的回调。其实,08金融危机之后,美股不应该上涨的那么疯狂,理性地回调是必要的;否则,一旦产生剧烈的股市震荡,就会再次引爆金融危机。若再次发生股市崩盘、引发金融危机,对美国的伤害主要表现在三方面:   一是大量蛰伏在股市的养老保险资金会损失惨重,这可是美国公民的养命钱;   二是会刺破美国国债泡沫,并诱发美元贬值;   三是可能会摧毁半个多世纪以来形成的美国金融循坏体系,股市及金融衍生交易市场吸纳的大量货币泡沫,会流入市场,加剧就业及通胀压力。   怎么办?想必美国精英们会采取更“流氓”的策略设法把这种危情通过美元缓释到全球,而且还有一个漂亮的借口:拯救美国就是解救大家。   再次,会加剧自英国脱欧以来,全球资本市场及国际贸易市场的恐慌情绪,进而引发全球股市大跌,刺破各主要经济体的“货币泡沫”。首先值得关注的是,欧盟各主要经济体、日本、韩国及中国的资本市场及经济运行,会雪上加霜。从这个角度来看,英国脱欧似乎是一个“明智之举”,相对受冲击会小一些。需要特别说明的是:中国如何应对,显得更重要,倒不是中国的金融体系抗冲击能力弱,而是因为中国的宏观经济运行正处于一个脆弱期。   最后,要特别警惕的是:谨防诸多金融财团及大鳄,在金融危情爆发后,借机垂死挣扎、兴风作浪。当然,美联储会首当其中地对他们发出警示和限制;但各个主权国家,特别是货币自由兑换的国家,如何避免厄运,的确是一道难题。这是因为:全球各大经济体,持久的量化宽松货币政策和极不平衡的国际贸易,早已经使汇率市场严重失真,一旦爆发全球金融危机,意味着全球各主要货币的汇率,会产生抽风般的剧烈波动。   到底该怎么办?刚刚结束的G20峰会忽视了这个议题,实在是一大遗憾。如果真出现这种危情,还需要全球各大经济体的首脑们,放下各自不值钱的政治立场分歧及政治面子贵贱,坦诚地务实协商解决好迟早都要共同面对的、彼此无法割舍的经济难题。   (本文作者介绍:香港环球经济电讯社首席经济学家、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院访问学者、高级研究员,政府及财团大型投资项目顾问,产业项目风险及可行性评估专家。)相关的主题文章: