分别较1月全月实际均值变化-2个基点 天价玩宠

Thomson Reuters: loose funds expected to cool cautiously optimistic about the bond market differentiation monetary policy easing is expected to cool, cautiously optimistic outlook funds bond market performance in 2016 second Thomson Reuters Chinese differentiation of the fixed income market participants expected, the central bank China February to maintain the benchmark interest rates and reserve ratio unchanged. China’s economic structural adjustment, economic growth slowed, the central bank’s efforts to maintain a sound exchange rate and monetary policy, the limited space in the short term, cut interest rates to reduce expected cooling, funds face cautious optimism, the bond market performance continues to differentiate. The continued turmoil in the global financial market, the slowdown threatens global central bank efforts to fight deflation, the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates during the year may be lower than expected pace in March, the European Central Bank may expand the stimulus plan, the Bank of Japan launched a negative interest rate policy, the central bank will continue to loose the main orientation, the U.S. interest rate hike after the global liquidity tightening is expected to ease, it is to alleviate the China capital outflows and exchange rate depreciation pressure, reduce the difficulty of China interest rate and exchange rate policy coordination. The current outlook is summarized as follows: interest rate cuts are expected to weaken. Outlook shows that 96% of the participating institutions believe that the central bank in February will maintain one-year benchmark deposit rate of 1.5%; and the next three months, the expected 1 year deposit benchmark interest rate will remain at 1.5% of the proportion of 80%, higher than the previous period, indicating that the market interest rate reduction is expected to cool. Short term RRR is expected to subside. The prospect of results showed that 80% of the institutions expected February large depository institutions statutory deposit reserve rate will remain at 17.5%, less than 20% increased significantly compared with the previous period; the next three months, the expected reserve ratio will be lowered the ratio close to 70%, also lower than the previous period more than 90% of the proportion is expected to drop quasi in cooling. Funds face cautious optimism. Forecast results show that in February this year, the whole month interbank deposit institutions overnight pledged repo weighted average interest rate and the interest rate of seven days, and the period of March Shibor forecast average were 1.9595%, 2.3353% and 3.0441% respectively, compared with January full month actual mean changes of -2 basis points (BP), 1 bp and 0 BP the funds, expected cautious optimism. Bond market continues to differentiate. The prospect of results show that participating institutions to the central securities depository Clearing Corp bonds, financial bonds and AAA and AA rating in the short-term bills yield to maturity valuation, this year 2 at the end of the end of January the average forecast of actual value change in the range of -10 to 5BP, the long end of the interest rate debt is more cautious, credit debt in the period after the bearish. To tend optimistic, most expected yields fell. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

汤森路透:宽松预期降温 资金谨慎乐观债市分化   货币政策宽松预期降温,资金谨慎乐观债市表现分化   2016年第2期汤森路透中国固定收益市场展望的参与机构预期,中国央行2月维持基准利率和准备金率不变。中国经济结构性调整,经济增速放缓,央行努力维持稳健汇率和货币政策,短期内宽松空间有限,降息降准预期降温,资金面谨慎乐观,债市表现继续分化。   全球金融市场持续动荡,经济放缓威胁到全球央行打击通缩的努力,美联储年内加息步伐可能低于预期,欧洲央行3月份可能扩大刺激计划,日本央行推出负利率政策,主要央行继续宽松取向,将令美国加息后全球流动性将收紧的预期有所缓解,这有利于缓解中国资本流出和汇率贬值压力,降低中国利率汇率政策协调的难度。   本期展望摘要如下:   降息预期减弱。展望结果显示,96%的参与机构认为,央行2月会维持一年期存款基准利率在1.5%;而未来三个月,预期1年期存款基准利率会维持在1.5%的比例为80%,较上期提高,显示市场降息预期有所降温。   短期降准预期消退。展望结果显示,八成的机构预期2月大型存款类机构法定存款准备金率会维持在17.5%,较上期的不足两成明显提高;未来三个月,预期该准备金率会下调的比例接近七成,也低于上期超过九成的比例,降准预期也在降温。   资金面预期谨慎乐观。展望结果显示,今年2月全月银行间存款类机构隔夜质押式回购加权平均利率和七天期该利率,以及三月期Shibor的预测均值分别为1.9595%、2.3353%和3.0441%,分别较1月全月实际均值变化-2个基点(bp)、1个bp和0个bp,资金面的预期谨慎乐观。   债市表现继续分化。展望结果显示,参与机构对中央国债登记结算公司国债、金融债及AAA与AA评级中短期票据的到期收益率估值,今年2月末预测均值较1月底实际值变化幅度在-10到5BP之间,利率债中长端较为谨慎,信用债在上期看空后,本期转而趋向乐观,收益率多数预期下跌。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: